Demographic, socio-economic and phycological perspective of risk perception from disasters caused by floods: case study Belgrade

  • Jovana Perić Scientific-Professional Society for Disaster Risk Management, Belgrade, Serbia.
  • Vladimir M. Cvetković Faculty of Security Studies, University of Belgrade, Gospodara Vučića 50, 11040 Belgrade, Serbia;
Keywords: risk perception, natural disaster, floods, prevention


Taking into account that floods are a very common occurrence in the Republic of Serbia, as well as the fact that they directly endanger the life and health of people, their property and the environment, it is necessary to see into how an individual perceives the risk of a natural disaster caused by a flood. In accordance with what is mentioned earlier, the research on which this paper is based was conducted in the area of several Belgrade municipalities - Palilula, Zemun, New Belgrade, Old Town, Savski venac, Grocka and Čukarica, with a sample of 120 respondents and with the aim of examining the perception of risk among the citizens of Belgrade. The results of the research show that there is a correlation between demographic (gender, age and education), socio-economic (property ownership and income levels) and psychological (fear and previous experience) factors with risk perception. Based on the results of the research and the knowledge gained, recommendations can be made that the competent authorities, institutions and organizations will be able to use in their educational activities, all with the aim of improving the perception of risk in the population. In this way, conditions are created for the implementation of preventive activities that can significantly reduce the consequences of natural disasters.


Ardaya, A. B., Evers, M. & Ribbe, L. (2017). What influences disaster risk perception? Intervention measures, flood and landslide risk perception of the population living in flood risk areas in Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, Volume 25, pp. 227-237.

Baker, E. J. (2011): Household preparedness for the aftermath of hurricanes in Florida. Applied Geography, 31(1), 46-52.

Beck, U. (1992). Risk Society: Towards a New Modernity. London։ SAGE.

Becker, J., Johnston, D., Coomer, M., Ronan, K. (2007). Flood risk perceptions, education and warning in four communities in New South Wales, Australia – results of a questionnaire survey, November 2005, GNS Science Report 2007/30. 66p.

Botzen, W., Aerts, J., & van den Bergh, J. C. (2009). Willingness of homeowners to mitigate climate risk through insurance. Ecological Economics, 68(8), rr. 2265 - 2277.

Botzen, W.J.W., Aerts, J.C.H.J., van den Bergh J.C.J.M.(2009). Dependence of flood risk perceptions on socioeconomic and objective risk factors. Water Resour. Res., Volume 45, pp. 1- 15.

Bronfman, N. & Cifuente L. (2003). Risk Perception in a Developing Country: The Case of Chile. Risk Analysis, 23(6), pp. 1271-85.

Bubeck, P., Botzen, W. J. W. & Aerts J. C. J. H. (2012). A Review of Risk Perceptions and Other Factors that Influence Flood Mitigation Behavior. Ris Analysis, Volume 32, September 2012 , pp. 1481-1495.

Burn, D.H. (1999). Perceptions of flood risk։ A case study of the Red River flood of 1997. Water Resources Research, VOL. 35, NO. 11, pp. 3451-3458.

Cabini E., Fontan L., Malavasi P. & Ivo Iavicoli I. (2017). Land use: The perception of risk by the citizens and local administrators in the North of Italy. Land Use Policy, Volume 76, July 2018, pp. 553-564.

Cologna V., Bark H. R. & Paavola J. (2017). Flood risk perceptions and the UK media: Moving beyond ‘‘once in a lifetime” to ‘‘Be Prepared” reporting. Climate Risk Management, Volume 17, pp. 1-10.

Crawford M.H., Crowleyb K., Potterc S.H.,. Saundersc W.S.A, Johnstonac D.M. (2018). Risk modelling as a tool to support natural hazard risk management in New Zealand local government. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, Volume 28, June 2018, pp. 610-619.

Cvetković, V. (2015). Spremnost građana za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu poplavom u Republici Srbiji (Cıtızens preparedness for respondıng to natural dısaster caused by flood ın Serbıa). Doktorka disertacija. Univerzitet u Beogradu, Fakultet bezbednosti.

Cvetković, V. (2015). Spremnost za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu – pregled literature (Natural dısaster preparedness – revıew of the lıterature). Bezbjednost - Policija - Građani, godina XI broj 1–2/15, str. 165-182.

Cvetković, V. (2016). Uticaj demografskih, socio-ekonomskih i psiholoških faktora na preduzimanje preventivnih mera (The impact of demographic, socio-economic and psychological factors on preventive measures). Kultura polisa, god. XIII. br. 31, str. 393-404.

Cvetković, V., & Milojković, B. (2016). Uticaj demografskih faktora na nivo informisanosti građana o nadležnostima policije u prirodnim katastrofama (The influence of demographic factors on the level of citizen awareness of police responsibilities in natural disasters). Bezbednost, 18(2), 5-32.

Cvetković, V., & Sandić, M. (2016). The fear of natural disaster caused by flood. Ecologica, 23(82), 203-211. Cvetković, V. (2015). Fenomenologija prirodnih katastrofa: teorijsko određenje i klasifikacija katastrofa. Bezbjednost - Policija – Građani. Godina XI broj 3–4/15.

Cvetković, V., Gačić, J., & Jakovljević, V. (2015). Impact of climate change on the distribution of extreme temperatures as natural disasters. Vojno delo, 67(6), 21-42.

Cvetković, V., Vučić, S., & Gačić, J. (2015). Klimatske promene i nacionalna odbrana (Climate change and national defense). Vojno delo, 67(5), 181-203.

Diakakis, M., Priskos, G. & Skordoulis, M. (2018). Public perception of flood risk in flash flood prone areas of Eastern Mediterranean: The case of Attica Region in Greece. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, Volume 28, June 2018, rr. 404-413.

Faupel, C. E., Kelley, S. P., Petee, T. (1992): The impact of disaster education on household preparedness for Hurricane Hugo. International Journal of Mass Emergencies and

Frondel M., Simora M. & Sommer S. (2017). Risk Perception of Climate Change: Empirical Evidence for Germany. Ecological Economics, Volume 137, July 2017, pp. 173-183.

Fujita, K., & Shaw, R. (2019). Preparing International Joint Project: use of Japanese flood hazard map in Bangladesh. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 1(1), 62-80.

Grothmann, T. & Reusswig, F. (2006). People at Risk of Flooding: Why Some Residents Take Precautionary Action While Others Do Not. Natural Hazards. May 2006, Volume 38, Issue 1–2, pp 101–120.

Guo, X., & Kapucu, N. (2019). Examining Stakeholder Participation in Social Stability Risk Assessment for Mega Projects using Network Analysis. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 1(1), 1-31.

Heller, K., Alexander, D. B., Gatz, M., Knight, B. G., Rose, T. (2005): Social and Personal Factors as Predictors of Earthquake Preparation: The Role of Support Provision, Network Discussion, Negative Affect, Age, and Education1. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 35(2), 399-422.

Ho, M.C., Shaw, D., Lin, S., & Chiu, Y. C. (2008). How Do Disaster Characteristics Influence Risk Perception? Risk Analysis, Vol. 28, No. 3, pp. 635-643.

Jakovljević, V., Cvetković, V., & Gačić, J. (2015). Prirodne katastrofe i obrazovanje (Natural disaster and education). Beograd: Univerzitet u Beogradu, Fakultet bezbednosti.

Jonkman, S. N., & Vrijling, J. K. (2008). Loss of life due to floods. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 1(1), 43-56.

Kellens, W., Terpstra T. & Maeyer De P. (2013). Perception and Communication of Flood Risks: A Systematic Review of Empirical Research. Risk Analysis. Volume 33, Issue 1, pp. 24-49.

Lechowska,E. (2018). What determines flood risk perception? A review of factors of flood risk perception and relations between its basic elements. Natural Hazards. December 2018, Volume 94, Issue 3, pp 1341–1366.

Lindell, M. K., & Perry, R. W. (2000). Household adjustment to earthquake hazard a review of research. Environment and Behavior, 32(4), 461-501.

Liu D., Lib Y., Shena X., Xiec Y., Zhang Y. (2018). Flood risk perception of rural households in western mountainous regions of Henan Province, China. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, Volume 27, pp. 155-160.

Magliocca, N. R., Walls, M. (2018). The role of subjective risk perceptions in shaping coastal development dynamics. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems. 71 (2018), pp. 1-13.

Marshall Jr, I., & Mathews, S. (2010): Disaster preparedness for the elderly: an analysis of international literature using symbolic interactionist perspective. J Aging Emerg Econom, 2(2), 79-92.

Mavrodieva, A., Budiarti, D., Yu, Z., Pasha, F., & Shaw, R. (2019). Governmental Incentivization for SMEs’ Engagement in Disaster Resilience in Southeast Asia. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 1(1), 32-50.

Motoyoshi, T. (2006). Public Perception of Flood Risk and Community-based Disaster Preparedness. U։ Ikeda S., Fukuzono T., and Sato T. ed. A better integrated management of disaster risks: Toward resilient society to emerging disaster risks in mega-cities. TERRAPUB and NIED.

Öcal, A., & Topkaya, Y. (2011): Earthquake preparedness in schools in seismic hazard regions in the South-East of Turkey. Disaster Prevention and Management, 20(3), 334-348.

Paton, D. (2003). Stress in disaster response: a risk management approach. Disaster Prevention and Management, 12(3), rr. 203 - 209.

Rausand M. 2011. Risk Assessment Theory, Methods, and Applications. New Jersey։ John Wiley & Sons.

Rego I.E., Pereira S. M., Morrob J. & Pachecoa M. P. 2018. Perceptions of seismic and volcanic risk and preparedness at São Miguel Island (Azores, Portugal). International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, Volume 31, October 2018, pp. 498-503.

Rohrmann, B. (2008). Risk Perception, Risk Attitude, Risk Communication, Risk Management: A Conceptual Appraisal. University of Melbourne.

Schlef E. K., Kaboré L., Karambiri H., Yang Y.C. E., Brown M. C.. 2017. Relating perceptions of flood risk and coping ability to mitigation behavior in West Africa: Case study of Burkina Faso. Environmental Science & Policy, Volume 89, November 2018, pp. 254-265.

Siegrist, M., Keller, C. & Kiers, H. A. L. (2005). A New Look at the Psychometric Paradigm of Perception of Hazards. Risk Analysis, Vol. 25, No. 1, 2005.

Sjöberg, L. (2003). Risk perception is not what it seems: The psychometric paradigm revisited. In K. Andersson (Ed.), VALDOR Conference 2003 (pp. 14-29). Stockholm: VALDOR.

Slovic P, Flynn JH, Layman M. (1991). Perceived risk, trust, and the politics of nuclear waste. Dec 13;25 4(5038):1603-7.

Slovic, P. & Weber, E.U. (2002). Perception of Risk Posed by Extreme Events. The conference on Risk management strategies in an Unciertan World Held in April 12-13 2002, Palisades, NY, pp 1-21.

Smawfield, D. (2012): Education and natural disasters: A&C Black.

Spittal, M. J., McClure, J., Siegert, R. J., Walkey, F. H. (2008): Predictors of two types of earthquake preparation: survival activities and mitigation activities. Environment and Behavior.

Tuswadi, & Hayashi, T. (2014): Disaster Prevention Education in Merapi Volcano Area Primary Schools: Focusing on Students’ Perception and Teachers’ Performance. Procedia Environmental Sciences, 20, 668-677.

Urcan, I. (2012). Flood hazards perception. The result of an opinion survay made in the little towns from Lower Arieù Corridor. RISCURI ùI CATASTROFE, NR. XI, VOL. 11, NR. 2/2012.

Wang, Z., Wang, H., Huang J., Kang, J. & Han D. (2018). Analysis of the Public Flood Risk Perception in a Flood-Prone City: The Case of Jingdezhen City in China. Water. 2018, 10, 1577.

Werritty, A., Houston, D., Ball, T., Tavendale, A., & Black, A. (2007): Exploring the social impacts of flood risk and flooding in Scotland: Scottish Executive Edinburgh.

How to Cite
Perić, J., & Cvetković, V. (2019). Demographic, socio-economic and phycological perspective of risk perception from disasters caused by floods: case study Belgrade. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 1(2).